The signal and the noise : why so many predictions fail-- but some don't
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Published:
New York : Penguin Press, 2012.
Format:
Book
Physical Desc:
534 pages : ill. ; 25 cm.
Status:
GCP Rifle Non Fiction
519.542 SIL
Description
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." --Rachel Maddow, author of Drift Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger--all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good--or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary--and dangerous--science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.
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Language:
English
ISBN:
9781594204111 (hbk.), 159420411X (hbk.)
Lexile Score:
1260

Notes

Bibliography
Includes bibliographical references (p. 459-514) and index.
Description
Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction.
Description
Human beings have to make plans and strategize for the future. As the pace of our lives becomes faster and faster, we have to do so more often and more quickly. But are our predictions any good? Is there hope for improvement? In The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy, ever-increasing date. Many predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. We are wired to detect a signal, and we mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the prediction paradox: the more humility we have about our ability to make predictions--and the more we are willing to learn from our mistakes--the more we can turn information into knowledge and data into foresight. Silver examines both successes and failures to determine what more accurate forecasters have in common. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poler table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. Even when their innovations are modest, we can learn from their methods. How can we train ourselves to think probabilistically, as they do? How can the insights of an eighteenth-century Englishman unlock the twenty-first-century challenges of global warming and terrorism? How can being smarter about the future help us make better decisions in the present?
Description
Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction.
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Citations
APA Citation (style guide)

Silver, N. (2012). The signal and the noise: why so many predictions fail-- but some don't. New York: Penguin Press.

Chicago / Turabian - Author Date Citation (style guide)

Silver, Nate, 1978-. 2012. The Signal and the Noise: Why so Many Predictions Fail-- but Some Don't. New York: Penguin Press.

Chicago / Turabian - Humanities Citation (style guide)

Silver, Nate, 1978-, The Signal and the Noise: Why so Many Predictions Fail-- but Some Don't. New York: Penguin Press, 2012.

MLA Citation (style guide)

Silver, Nate. The Signal and the Noise: Why so Many Predictions Fail-- but Some Don't. New York: Penguin Press, 2012. Print.

Note! Citation formats are based on standards as of July 2010. Citations contain only title, author, edition, publisher, and year published. Citations should be used as a guideline and should be double checked for accuracy.
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Grouped Work ID:
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